I thought this might interest y'all--taken from comments.
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Charley,

Kos has Specter winning quite decisively in the most recent poll.

Specter (R) 52
Hoeffel (D) 40

What can Hoeffel do (what would you have done) to counteract this Specter incumbency power? Personally, I think that if Bush tanks in the polls, as seems likely, it will be because all but the most hard-core Repubs see him as incompetent with dangerous or poorly developed policies. Isn't there some effective way to tar all the Repub incumbents with blame for subjecting the country to this trauma and this incompetency, and thus convincing the electorate to vote them all out!?

(Posted by Neil at May 24, 2004 04:21 PM)
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I don't think the numbers will be that bad--I think it will be closer, maybe 51-47. But currently I see Specter winning. Here's why.

People don't know what they like, they like what they know. That's an old saying from the music industry, and it's largely why you hear the same songs year after year and relatively few new-sounding acts. People don't know Joe, they know Arlen, and many of them have the attitude that Arlen isn't that bad. Not bad is good enough for a lot of America.

I like Joe, but I haven't seen him offer much of an alternative vision and plan to get there. This was what's his name's mistake in the primary--his proposal to Republican voters was that he is conservative, and Arlen is not, so vote for Toomey (remembering now). But nobody knew what he would do once in office, what kind of leader he would be, or what he would do for Pennsylvania aside from being conservative on their behalf.

Similarly, Joe isn't inspiring the masses. He's importing inspiration by using Dean and the Clintons, but on his own he hasn't motivated a ton of volunteers (note his blog comments--still at none or 1 a day, like here--and I'm not a candidate), and has raised less money than Alison Schwartz, who is merely running for the seat he is giving up in the 13th.

Joe needs to show leadership. Offer an alternative. Propose plans, not just that he's the moderate Democrat acceptable to voters, because Arlen is the moderate Republican acceptable to voters. What's his vision for America? What's his plan to get there? Get in people's faces. He needs to stop preaching to the converted--the base--and get out and evangelize to the voting public.And he should start spending that money, and stop saving it with a scarcity mentality. Spend the money on TV in Pittsburgh and hold lots of fundraisers there. Do the same outside of Philly. Energize funders, and stop giving the stump speech (which sounds so canned, over-rehearsed, and disingenuous) and speak off the cuff and conversationally. Hoeffel has a way of speaking to people that just seems phony, but in conversation he's actually charasmatic. He loses the charisma in front of a crowd. He needs to talk to the crowd like he's confiding something to his best friend. Give people something to believe in. Instead, he sounds like a principal talking to a classroom of firstgraders on the first day of school.

I hope Joe wins. It's going to take more than campaigning, posturing, and positioning. It's going to take showing real heart, real passion, and real leadership. In the absence of that, why would anybody vote for him? PA doesn't have enough idealogical Democrats to carry him over the finish line. Pragmatists will stick with the guy who's already, in their view, not that bad.

Posted by Charlie Crystle at May 25, 2004 11:40 AM